Ajman 1-0 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 42%, yet in-form Sharjah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajman vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ajman welcome Sharjah FC to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Ajman's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sharjah FC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 40% versus Sharjah FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajman 20% | Sharjah FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.59 xG and Sharjah FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.054 / defence 1.031 | Sharjah FC attack 1.059 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.123. Sharjah FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Ajman games / 5 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 42% | Draw 32% | Sharjah FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Sharjah FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajman are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sharjah FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 40% | Sharjah FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 42% | Draw 32% | Sharjah FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Ajman 1.59 / Sharjah FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.054 / def 1.031 | Sharjah FC attack 1.059 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Ajman (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Sharjah FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:45 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Ajman 1 - 0 Sharjah FC.
Where is Ajman vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Sharjah FC part of?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 42% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ajman and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajman's attack rating (1.05) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
42%
2.35
32%
3.16
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.82
1.23
Sharjah FC xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
5%
19.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ajman and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ajman and 1.23 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 1L across 5 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Sharjah FC's attacking output running into Ajman's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC in 60%.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Sharjah FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Ajman or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
2
Draws
5
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Sharjah FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 40%, Sharjah FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Ajman) and 60% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ajman's recent matches and 60% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ajman's recent games and 60% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Sharjah FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Sharjah FC 1-0 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.59 xG and Sharjah FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.36, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 42% | Draw 32% | Sharjah FC 26%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 20%, Sharjah FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.