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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.53 / defence 0.74 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%, Al Wahda FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights