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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 13:05 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ajman — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 1.40 PPG, Ajman 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khorfakkan, 2 for Ajman and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Ajman in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 74% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 71% | Ajman 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.17 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.025 / defence 1.068 | Ajman attack 0.926 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.379. Data: 38 Khorfakkan games / 38 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 54% | Draw 24% | Ajman 22%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Ajman 4.55. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.

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