Khorfakkan 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Thursday 26 May 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.20 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Khorfakkan lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 1–3 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 64% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 72% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.26 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.049 / defence 1.077 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.621 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.370. Data: 25 Khorfakkan games / 25 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Khorfakkan 1.26 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.049 / def 1.077 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.621 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Khorfakkan 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 44% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (1 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (1.05) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (0.62x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.48
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.18
0.92
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.92 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 8W 4D 13L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 8L across 25 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 2W 5D 5L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.24 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.67 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-3 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Khorfakkan) and 17% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 42% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 17% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 1-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.26 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.92 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.62 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 72%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.