Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 3W 4D 3L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Khorfakkan in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 0 for Khorfakkan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% and Khorfakkan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% | Khorfakkan 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.18 xG and Khorfakkan 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.994 / defence 1.233 | Khorfakkan attack 0.783 / defence 1.770. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.340. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.770 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 24 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Khorfakkan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.18 / Khorfakkan 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.994 / def 1.233 | Khorfakkan attack 0.783 / def 1.770 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Khorfakkan xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 58% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
58%
1.74
20%
4.92
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.47
1.29
Khorfakkan xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
2%
40.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.29 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 6W 9D 9L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 13L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 1.04 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.42 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.25 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 75% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 83% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 75% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 83% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.18 xG and Khorfakkan 1.29 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Khorfakkan attack 0.78 / defence 1.77, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 22%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Khorfakkan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%, Khorfakkan 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.