Baniyas SC 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baniyas SC host Khorfakkan at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baniyas SC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Baniyas SC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Baniyas Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baniyas SC 1.20 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khorfakkan in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Baniyas SC have won 0, Khorfakkan 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2022, ended 2–4 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 54% versus Khorfakkan 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 50% | Khorfakkan 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.952 / defence 1.020 | Khorfakkan attack 1.015 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.374. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Baniyas SC games / 26 Khorfakkan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 32%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Khorfakkan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Baniyas SC 1.72 / Khorfakkan 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.952 / def 1.020 | Khorfakkan attack 1.015 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Khorfakkan xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Baniyas SC 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 44% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.95) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.14
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.42
Khorfakkan xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.42 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 8W 7D 11L from 26 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. Baniyas SC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 14L across 26 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. Khorfakkan haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.19 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 5W 3D 5L from 13 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.46 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Pre-Season
Khorfakkan
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.38 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2025, when Khorfakkan won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
5
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 46%, Khorfakkan 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Baniyas SC and 85% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Baniyas SC's games and 77% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Baniyas SC's matches and 85% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.42 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Khorfakkan attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 32%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 50%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.19 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.