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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.18 xG and Baniyas SC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Baniyas SC attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 28% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 47%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 63%, Baniyas SC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.15 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights