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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.06 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 25% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 47%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 62%, Al Wahda FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights