Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khorfakkan face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Al Bataeh's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Bataeh away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Khorfakkan, 1.20 for Al Bataeh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) — Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al Bataeh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Khorfakkan, 3 for Al Bataeh and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Khorfakkan 1–2 Al Bataeh — a Al Bataeh win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 64% and Al Bataeh 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 64% | Al Bataeh 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.21 xG and Al Bataeh 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / defence 1.231 | Al Bataeh attack 0.923 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.364. Khorfakkan's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Bataeh's projected output up. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 47 games and Al Bataeh's last 47.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 25% | Al Bataeh 45%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.36 | Draw 3.99 | Al Bataeh 2.21. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 25% | Al Bataeh 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Khorfakkan 1.21 / Al Bataeh 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / def 1.231 | Al Bataeh attack 0.923 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Bataeh xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh FAQs
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 30% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.92x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Khorfakkan's last 47 games and Al Bataeh's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
30%
3.36
25%
3.99
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.76
1.55
Al Bataeh xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.55 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 11D 21L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Bataeh's form line: 11W 12D 24L from 47 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Khorfakkan against 0.96 for Al Bataeh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 23 home games (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 7W 5D 11L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.09 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
Khorfakkan (Home) vs Al Bataeh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh Form FAQs
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 12D 24L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Bataeh away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Bataeh on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Khorfakkan, 61% for Al Bataeh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Khorfakkan) and 48% (Al Bataeh).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Khorfakkan's games and 61% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 48% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 83% of Al Bataeh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.21 xG and Al Bataeh 1.55 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Al Bataeh attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 25% | Al Bataeh 45%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 64%, Al Bataeh 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.19 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.