Hatta SC 1-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Hatta SC welcome Sharjah FC to Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Hatta SC have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 outings — a 0.44 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatta SC's home record at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Pro League appearances (0.00 PPG).
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sharjah FC — 1.06 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.44). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Hatta SC in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatta SC 44% versus Sharjah FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatta SC 56% | Sharjah FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 0.79 xG and Sharjah FC 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.465 / defence 1.278 | Sharjah FC attack 1.055 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.825. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.465 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Hatta SC games / 34 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 9% | Draw 18% | Sharjah FC 73%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 11.11 | Draw 5.56 | Sharjah FC 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Hatta SC 0% | Sharjah FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 9% | Draw 18% | Sharjah FC 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 51% | xG Hatta SC 0.79 / Sharjah FC 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.465 / def 1.278 | Sharjah FC attack 1.055 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.825 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.46
Sharjah FC xG
51%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Hatta SC 1 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 9% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 73% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hatta SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatta SC and Sharjah FC in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hatta SC's attack rating (0.47) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Hatta SC's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
9%
11.31
18%
5.49
73%
1.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.25
2.46
Sharjah FC xG
11.31
9%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
1.37
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
9%
11.70
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
1%
132.41
33%
3.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.46 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatta SC come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 1D 7L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hatta SC's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.56 PPG overall record — Sharjah FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hatta SC are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.00 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
1
Draws
1
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2024, when Sharjah FC 0-0 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 0%, Sharjah FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hatta SC) and 50% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 75% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hatta SC's recent games and 50% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatta SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Hatta SC 1-4 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 0.79 xG and Sharjah FC 2.46 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 2.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.47 / defence 1.28 against Sharjah FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 9/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 9% | Draw 18% | Sharjah FC 73%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 56%, Sharjah FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hatta SC (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.