Al Bataeh 3-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium plays host to Al Bataeh versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 23 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sharjah FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.40 for Sharjah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Bataeh lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 58% versus Sharjah FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 64% | Sharjah FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.19 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.847 / defence 0.854 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.748. Data: 33 Al Bataeh games / 33 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Sharjah FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 60% | Sharjah FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Bataeh 1.19 / Sharjah FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.847 / def 0.854 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.748 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:30 on Thursday 23 November 2023 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Al Bataeh 3 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 30% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 2W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (0.99x) against Al Bataeh's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
30%
3.30
26%
3.90
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.67
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.48 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 8W 8D 17L from 33 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 9L across 33 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Bataeh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 2W 7D 8L from 17 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 10W 4D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.79 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 8W 8D 17L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.76 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 59%, Sharjah FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Bataeh) and 35% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 47%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 35% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 35% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC drew 3-3 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.19 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al Bataeh beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.85 / defence 0.85 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 44%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 64%, Sharjah FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.