Ajman 1-1 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatta SC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Hatta SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Hatta SC meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Ajman (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajman have posted 4W 1D 5L at Ajman Stadium — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hatta SC's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 7L from 8 games (0.38 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Hatta SC have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Ajman against 0.38 for Hatta SC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ajman register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Hatta SC in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajman — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hatta SC — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 62% versus Hatta SC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 62% | Hatta SC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.70 xG and Hatta SC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.931 / defence 1.189 | Hatta SC attack 0.861 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.770. Data: 34 Ajman games / 8 Hatta SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 36% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 41%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Hatta SC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatta SC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatta SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Hatta SC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 36% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Ajman 1.70 / Hatta SC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.931 / def 1.189 | Hatta SC attack 0.861 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.770 • Poisson stance: Hatta SC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Hatta SC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Hatta SC kick off?
Ajman vs Hatta SC kicked off at 12:45 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Ajman 1 - 1 Hatta SC.
Where is Ajman vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Hatta SC part of?
Ajman vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 36% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hatta SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Ajman and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Hatta SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Hatta SC in?
Ajman (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Hatta SC (all comps): 1W-0D-7L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajman's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hatta SC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatta SC's attack (0.86x) against Ajman's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 34/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatta SC Win
36%
2.78
23%
4.27
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.51
1.81
Hatta SC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Ajman and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ajman and 1.81 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajman come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 3D 4L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatta SC sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (1W 0D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Ajman against 0.38 for Hatta SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajman's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hatta SC have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.38 PPG overall record — Hatta SC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatta SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajman are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Hatta SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Hatta SC away?
Hatta SC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 0.00 PPG; Hatta SC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ajman
2
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Hatta SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajman have won 0, Hatta SC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Hatta SC 0-0 Ajman.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 33%, Hatta SC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ajman and 67% for Hatta SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 67% of games; Hatta SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Hatta SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ajman's recent matches and 67% of Hatta SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ajman's matches and 67% of Hatta SC's.
Do Ajman and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Hatta SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Ajman and Hatta SC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.70 xG and Hatta SC 1.81 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hatta SC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Hatta SC attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 36% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 41%, with Hatta SC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 62%, Hatta SC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hatta SC's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 0.75 PPG, Hatta SC 0.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.