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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Khorfakkan to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 8 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 5L across 6 games at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this term (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Dibba Al-Fujairah) versus 0.80 (Khorfakkan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Khorfakkan and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 73% and Khorfakkan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 54% | Khorfakkan 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.98 xG and Khorfakkan 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.821 / defence 1.288 | Khorfakkan attack 0.963 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.433. Data: 11 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 37 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 56%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Khorfakkan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 83% | Khorfakkan 40% BTTS from recent games.

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