Al Nasr 2-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al Nasr welcome Sharjah FC to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr at Al Maktoum Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Nasr, 3 for Sharjah FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Nasr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 63% versus Sharjah FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 60% | Sharjah FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.058 / defence 0.896 | Sharjah FC attack 0.891 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.350. Data: 37 Al Nasr games / 35 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 42% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 50% | Sharjah FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 42% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Nasr 1.33 / Sharjah FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.058 / def 0.896 | Sharjah FC attack 0.891 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sharjah FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 6 January 2026 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Al Nasr 2 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 42% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Nasr and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Nasr 3W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 3W.
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.65
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.40
1.08
Sharjah FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.08 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Nasr come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 8D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (18W 4D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.43 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Nasr's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 18W 4D 13L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.65 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 59%, Sharjah FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Nasr) and 53% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Nasr's games and 53% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Nasr's recent games and 53% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Nasr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Nasr 2-4 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Sharjah FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 42% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 30%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 60%, Sharjah FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.43 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.