Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Dibba Al-Fujairah travel to Al Rashid Stadium to take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 January 2026, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Rashid Stadium, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Rashid Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 5–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 17% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.300 / defence 0.777 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.712 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.339. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 12 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% | Draw 21% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 14%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% | Draw 21% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.92 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.300 / def 0.777 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.712 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 15:45 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 65% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (2 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.74
14%
7.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.66
0.74
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
7.33
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
49.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.74 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 12 games, going 9W 2D 1L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al-Fujairah sit at 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 67%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 2D 1L in their last 12 games (2.42 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.40 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 40% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 40% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 7-0 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 5.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.30 / defence 0.78 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% | Draw 21% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 14%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.