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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr finished level at 1-1 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 xG and Al Nasr 1.48 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Al Nasr attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 16/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 46%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%, Al Nasr 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights