Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dibba Al-Fujairah face Al Bataeh.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Bataeh travel to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah in Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Bataeh stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 60% of Al Bataeh's (from Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Al Bataeh and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Dibba Al-Fujairah 1–0 Al Bataeh — a Dibba Al-Fujairah win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Al Bataeh trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 61% versus Al Bataeh 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% | Al Bataeh 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.95 xG and Al Bataeh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.750 / defence 1.098 | Al Bataeh attack 0.871 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.439. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 23 games and Al Bataeh's last 49.

Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% | Draw 28% | Al Bataeh 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.90 | Draw 3.59 | Al Bataeh 2.15. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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