Baniyas SC 1-2 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Nasr make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 2 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Al Nasr have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 44% versus Al Nasr 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 58% | Al Nasr 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.12 xG and Al Nasr 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.770 / defence 1.385 | Al Nasr attack 1.148 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.341. Baniyas SC's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Baniyas SC games / 36 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 19% | Draw 20% | Al Nasr 60%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Al Nasr 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Nasr (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 50% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 19% | Draw 20% | Al Nasr 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Baniyas SC 1.12 / Al Nasr 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.770 / def 1.385 | Al Nasr attack 1.148 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Al Nasr xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 2 January 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Baniyas SC 1 - 2 Al Nasr.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 19% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Record (8 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 3 | Al Nasr 3W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.77x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (1.15x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
19%
5.19
20%
4.91
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.25
2.13
Al Nasr xG
5.19
19%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
12%
8.41
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
2%
43.65
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.13 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 9W 7D 20L from 36 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 13L across 36 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Nasr by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baniyas SC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 6D 9L from 18 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.61 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 7D 20L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.83 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won 4-1 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 3, Al Nasr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Nasr 0-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 50%, Al Nasr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Baniyas SC and 72% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Baniyas SC's games and 67% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Baniyas SC's matches and 72% of Al Nasr's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Baniyas SC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Baniyas SC 1-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.12 xG and Al Nasr 2.13 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.77 / defence 1.39 against Al Nasr attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 19% | Draw 20% | Al Nasr 60%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 58%, Al Nasr 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.