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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Al-Wasl FC welcome Al Wahda FC to Zabeel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 January 2026 at 12:55 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Wasl FC at Zabeel Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at Zabeel Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al Wahda FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Wasl FC, 2 for Al Wahda FC and 6 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Wasl FC trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al Wahda FC trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 63% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 63% | Al Wahda FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.09 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.786 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.326. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Al-Wasl FC games / 35 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wahda FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Wahda FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Al Wahda FC 50%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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