Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC host Ajman at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:20 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Wasl FC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ajman have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ajman away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Al-Wasl FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al-Wasl FC have won 1, Ajman 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Al-Wasl FC 2–4 Ajman — a Ajman win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ajman in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 70% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 67% | Ajman 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Wasl FC surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Ajman have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.76 xG and Ajman 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.138 / defence 0.881 | Ajman attack 0.939 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.778. Ajman's defence rating of 1.473 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Wasl FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Wasl FC's last 30 games and Ajman's last 30.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 65% | Draw 17% | Ajman 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.55 | Draw 5.92 | Ajman 5.39. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.76 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Wasl FC's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Wasl FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:20 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 65% | Draw 17% | Ajman 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.76 / Ajman 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.138 / def 0.881 | Ajman attack 0.939 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.778 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Ajman xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman FAQs
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kicked off at 15:20 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman is a Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 65% chance of winning, Ajman a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Ajman will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Wasl FC's last 30 games and Ajman's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
65%
1.55
17%
5.92
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
2 – 2
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
4.23
1.47
Ajman xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
6%
15.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
1%
84.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.47 for Ajman, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 16W 9D 5L from 30 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 11L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.90 PPG, Ajman on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 8W 4D 3L from their last 15 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across their last 15 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.60 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Ajman in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC (Home) vs Ajman (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman Form FAQs
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 16W 9D 5L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Ajman have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Ajman away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Ajman away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won Ajman 1-4 Al-Wasl FC.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
4
Draws
2
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Ajman have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Ajman last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 67%, Ajman 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Wasl FC and 53% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ajman in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Wasl FC and Ajman matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 47% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 53% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Ajman matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 73% of Ajman's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC and Ajman finished level at 1-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.76 xG and Ajman 1.47 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Ajman attack 0.94 / defence 1.47, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 65% | Draw 17% | Ajman 19%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 67%, Ajman 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.90 PPG, Ajman 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.