Al Bataeh 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al Bataeh welcome Ajman to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Bataeh 1.00 PPG, Ajman 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Ajman and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 58% versus Ajman 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 68% | Ajman 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.92 xG and Ajman 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.905 / defence 0.855 | Ajman attack 0.911 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.727. Ajman bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Al Bataeh games / 31 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 51% | Draw 23% | Ajman 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 3.70. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 51% | Draw 23% | Ajman 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Bataeh 1.92 / Ajman 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.905 / def 0.855 | Ajman attack 0.911 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.727 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ajman xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Ajman kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman kicked off at 13:45 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Al Bataeh 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Ajman part of?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 51% chance of winning, Ajman a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Bataeh and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Record (2 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 1 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.91x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.39
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.27
1.34
Ajman xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
4%
25.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.34 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 7W 7D 17L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman's form line: 13W 7D 11L from 31 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ajman are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 0.75 PPG from 16 outings (2W 6D 8L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.58 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 7W 7D 17L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Ajman have gone 13W 7D 11L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.75 PPG; Ajman away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 56%, Ajman 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Bataeh) and 50% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 50% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 50% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ajman in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh and Ajman finished level at 1-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.92 xG and Ajman 1.34 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Ajman attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 51% | Draw 23% | Ajman 27%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 68%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.