Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Hatta SC to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Friday 6 October 2023 at 15:20 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 4 matches, Hatta SC stand at 0W 0D 4L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On current form, Al-Ittihad Kalba have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Hatta SC trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% versus Hatta SC 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 75% | Hatta SC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG and Hatta SC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / defence 1.304 | Hatta SC attack 0.634 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.813. Hatta SC's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hatta SC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 30 games and Hatta SC's last 4.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 24% | Hatta SC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.47 | Draw 4.21 | Hatta SC 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Hatta SC's last 4 games) suggests only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Hatta SC's last 4 games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 home games) | Hatta SC 25% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 October 2023 at 15:20 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 24% | Hatta SC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 / Hatta SC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / def 1.304 | Hatta SC attack 0.634 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.813 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hatta SC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC kicked off at 15:20 UK time on Friday 6 October 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Hatta SC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 41% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.93) and Hatta SC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatta SC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 30 games and Hatta SC's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
41%
2.47
24%
4.21
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.11
1.50
Hatta SC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.50 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Hatta SC sit at 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L across their last five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatta SC in 25%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Hatta SC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba (Home) vs Hatta SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Hatta SC
Early Season
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
0
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Hatta SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Hatta SC 1-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50%, Hatta SC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 50% for Hatta SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 50% of games; Hatta SC in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Hatta SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 25% of Hatta SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 50% of Hatta SC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Hatta SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 100% of Hatta SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Hatta SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Hatta SC 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG and Hatta SC 1.50 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Hatta SC attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 24% | Hatta SC 36%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 75%, Hatta SC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hatta SC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad Kalba conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.