Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Al-Jazira in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Wahda FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al-Jazira's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Al-Jazira have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al Wahda FC, who have won 6 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against Al-Jazira — Al-Jazira have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2025, ended Al Wahda FC 1–0 Al-Jazira — a Al Wahda FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Al Wahda FC an edge — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 54% versus Al-Jazira 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 56% | Al-Jazira 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.39 xG and Al-Jazira 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.197 / defence 0.793 | Al-Jazira attack 0.854 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.453. Al Wahda FC have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Al-Jazira's projected output down. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 41 games and Al-Jazira's last 42.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.16 | Draw 3.69 | Al-Jazira 3.76. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Wahda FC 6 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Jazira 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.39 / Al-Jazira 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.197 / def 0.793 | Al-Jazira attack 0.854 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Jazira xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 46% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.20) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.85x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 41 games and Al-Jazira's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.69
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.38
0.98
Al-Jazira xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.98 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 21W 15D 5L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Al-Jazira's form line: 17W 11D 13L from 41 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.51 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.05 PPG from their last 20 home games (11W 8D 1L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 8D 5L from their last 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Al-Jazira (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 15D 5L in their last 41 games (1.90 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Al-Jazira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Al Wahda FC, 65% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Wahda FC and 50% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Wahda FC's games and 65% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 50% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 85% of Al-Jazira's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.39 xG and Al-Jazira 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Al-Jazira attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 56%, Al-Jazira 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.90 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.