Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Wahda FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC host Al Bataeh at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Thursday 5 February 2026 at 13:25 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al Bataeh — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Wahda FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al Wahda FC: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 2 for Al Bataeh, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Al Wahda FC 3–1 Al Bataeh — a Al Wahda FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Wahda FC and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 52% versus Al Bataeh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 55% | Al Bataeh 55%). Note also that Al Bataeh surrender HT leads in 62% of cases while Al Wahda FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.38 xG and Al Bataeh 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.178 / defence 0.719 | Al Bataeh attack 0.954 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.332. Al Wahda FC have a tight defence (rating 0.719), which is pulling Al Bataeh's projected output down. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 40 games and Al Bataeh's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.10 | Draw 3.65 | Al Bataeh 4.02. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 13:25 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.38 / Al Bataeh 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.178 / def 0.719 | Al Bataeh attack 0.954 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Bataeh xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:25 UK time on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 48% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 40 games and Al Bataeh's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.65
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.91
Al Bataeh xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.91 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 14D 5L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (10W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 12W 7D 1L across their last 20 home games, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 20 away games (7W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 60%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Al Bataeh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 14D 5L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won Al Bataeh 0-4 Al Wahda FC.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 February 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 60%, Al Bataeh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Wahda FC and 50% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Wahda FC's games and 60% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 50% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 80% of Al Bataeh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh finished level at 2-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.38 xG and Al Bataeh 0.91 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.72 against Al Bataeh attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 25%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 55%, Al Bataeh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.