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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 58%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights