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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 49%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights