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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.59 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 23%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights