Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.50 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Al-Jazira attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%, Al-Jazira 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights