Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 52%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 15:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Jazira away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 3 for Al-Jazira and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% and Al-Jazira 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al-Jazira 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.109 / defence 0.852 | Al-Jazira attack 1.116 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.844 / away 1.583. Data: 33 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 34 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Jazira 4.00. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights