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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.45 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 33%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59%, Al-Dhafra 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights