🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ajman cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG and Ajman 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Ajman attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 27% | Ajman 32%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Ajman 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Ajman's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 PPG, Ajman 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights