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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Dhafra 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 2-3 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 57%, Khorfakkan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 1.14 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights