Al-Dhafra 2-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Dhafra face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Dhafra welcome Khorfakkan to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Friday 6 February 2026 at 13:25 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Dhafra — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Al-Dhafra have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 home games (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Khorfakkan away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Dhafra at 1.00 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Khorfakkan 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2026, ended Al-Dhafra 3–2 Khorfakkan — a Al-Dhafra win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Dhafra in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 57% versus Khorfakkan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 57% | Khorfakkan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.848 / defence 1.111 | Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.372. Data: built from Al-Dhafra's last 14 games and Khorfakkan's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.77 | Draw 3.60 | Khorfakkan 2.19. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Dhafra's last 7 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Dhafra 57% (last 7 home games) | Khorfakkan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 13:25 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al-Dhafra 0.95 / Khorfakkan 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.848 / def 1.111 | Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:25 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Dhafra 2 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 27% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Dhafra's last 14 games and Khorfakkan's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
27%
3.77
28%
3.60
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.28
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.34 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 1D 8L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 1.14 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across their last 7 home games, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Al-Dhafra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Dhafra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Dhafra (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.71 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Khorfakkan have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 3-0 Al-Dhafra.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Khorfakkan have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 57%, Khorfakkan 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Dhafra and 57% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 29% of games; Khorfakkan in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 29% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 57% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 86% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Dhafra 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 2-3 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 57%, Khorfakkan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 1.14 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.