Al-Dhafra 0-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Nasr make the trip to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Dhafra in Pro League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:55 UK time.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Dhafra at home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Nasr's record over their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al Nasr's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al Nasr arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Dhafra's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) — Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Nasr in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Dhafra, 2 for Al Nasr and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Al-Dhafra 0–2 Al Nasr — a Al Nasr win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Dhafra 57% and Al Nasr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 57% | Al Nasr 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.01 xG and Al Nasr 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.789 / defence 1.407 | Al Nasr attack 1.003 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.345. Al-Dhafra's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Al-Dhafra's defence rating of 1.407 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Dhafra's last 21 games and Al Nasr's last 47.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 20% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 58%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 5.11 | Draw 4.48 | Al Nasr 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al Nasr (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Dhafra's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Dhafra 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 20% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al-Dhafra 1.01 / Al Nasr 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.789 / def 1.407 | Al Nasr attack 1.003 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Al Nasr xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr FAQs
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr kicked off at 15:55 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 20% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.79) and Al Nasr's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (1.00x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from Al-Dhafra's last 21 games and Al Nasr's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
20%
5.11
22%
4.48
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.91
1.90
Al Nasr xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
3%
34.18
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.90 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 3D 13L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (6W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Al Nasr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 10 away games (4W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 67%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Dhafra (Home) vs Al Nasr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr Form FAQs
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 3D 13L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 6W 10D 5L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.20 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Nasr have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Al-Dhafra 0-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Al-Dhafra, 70% for Al Nasr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Dhafra and 50% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Dhafra's games and 70% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 50% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 60% of Al Nasr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Dhafra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Dhafra 0-1 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.01 xG and Al Nasr 1.90 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al Nasr landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.41 against Al Nasr attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 21/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 20% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 58%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 57%, Al Nasr 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Nasr's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.