Al Bataeh 3-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Bataeh host Al-Jazira at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Al Bataeh have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Bataeh at 1.20 PPG versus Al-Jazira's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Jazira have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al Bataeh's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Jazira winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Jazira have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 63% and Al-Jazira 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 68% | Al-Jazira 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.65 xG and Al-Jazira 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.993 / defence 1.020 | Al-Jazira attack 1.123 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.728. Data: 41 Al Bataeh games / 41 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 33% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Jazira 2.17. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 33% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Al Bataeh 1.65 / Al-Jazira 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.993 / def 1.020 | Al-Jazira attack 1.123 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.728 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Al-Jazira xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Al Bataeh 3 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 33% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira?
Record (3 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
33%
3.08
22%
4.64
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.63
1.98
Al-Jazira xG
3.08
33%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
14%
7.24
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
4%
22.28
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.98 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 10D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.63 PPG from 41 outings (20W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 3W 8D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 1.68 points per game from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.00 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 76%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 20W 7D 14L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.89 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jan 2025, when Al-Jazira won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
6
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Bataeh at 68%, Al-Jazira at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Bataeh and 74% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Bataeh's games and 79% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Bataeh's matches and 74% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al-Jazira 3-2 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.65 xG and Al-Jazira 1.98 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Bataeh beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Al-Jazira attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 33% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 46%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 68%, Al-Jazira 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.