Khorfakkan 0-3 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Khorfakkan, 1.40 for Al Bataeh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Bataeh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Khorfakkan, 1 for Al Bataeh and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 60% and Al Bataeh 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 67% | Al Bataeh 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.61 xG and Al Bataeh 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.032 / defence 1.087 | Al Bataeh attack 0.877 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.696. Data: 43 Khorfakkan games / 42 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 38% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 38%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Al Bataeh 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 38% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Khorfakkan 1.61 / Al Bataeh 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.032 / def 1.087 | Al Bataeh attack 0.877 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.696 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al Bataeh xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Khorfakkan 0 - 3 Al Bataeh.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 38% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
Record (3 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 1 | Al Bataeh 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.88x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.18
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.23
1.62
Al Bataeh xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.62 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 9D 22L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 11W 10D 21L from 42 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.02 for Al Bataeh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 7W 2D 11L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.26 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 10D 21L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Bataeh away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 55%, Al Bataeh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Khorfakkan and 75% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Khorfakkan's games and 60% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Khorfakkan's matches and 75% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Bataeh run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Khorfakkan 0-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.61 xG and Al Bataeh 1.62 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Bataeh outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Al Bataeh attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 38% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 38%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Al Bataeh 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.