Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-4 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajman stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajman — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 3 for Ajman and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 5–3 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ajman in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% versus Ajman 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 63% | Ajman 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.41 xG and Ajman 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.875 / defence 1.048 | Ajman attack 0.952 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.658. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 41 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 24% | Ajman 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Ajman 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 24% | Ajman 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.41 / Ajman 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.875 / def 1.048 | Ajman attack 0.952 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.658 • Poisson stance: Ajman (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Ajman xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 4 Ajman.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 33% chance of winning, Ajman a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 1 | Ajman 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Ajman (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.88x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
33%
3.06
24%
4.20
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.06
1.66
Ajman xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.66 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 12W 11D 18L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 15L across 41 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.15 PPG, Ajman on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 8W 6D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.49 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Ajman have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.15 PPG; Ajman away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, Ajman have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Ajman 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 55% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 60% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 55% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajman in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-4 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.41 xG and Ajman 1.66 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Ajman attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 24% | Ajman 44%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%, Ajman 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 PPG, Ajman 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.