Sharjah FC 5-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sharjah FC welcome Baniyas SC to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 0.90 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sharjah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baniyas SC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sharjah FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Baniyas SC have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 4–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 39% versus Baniyas SC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 48% | Baniyas SC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.90 xG and Baniyas SC 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.996 / defence 1.087 | Baniyas SC attack 1.063 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.786. Data: 31 Sharjah FC games / 31 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 22% | Baniyas SC 42%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Baniyas SC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baniyas SC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Baniyas SC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 22% | Baniyas SC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Sharjah FC 1.90 / Baniyas SC 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.996 / def 1.087 | Baniyas SC attack 1.063 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.786 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Baniyas SC xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC 5 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 36% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Record (4 meetings): Sharjah FC 4W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.00) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
36%
2.80
22%
4.53
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.96
2.06
Baniyas SC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.98
Clean Sheet
13%
7.88
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
5%
22.05
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 2.06 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 15W 7D 9L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 8W 7D 16L from 31 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L). That actually lags their 1.68 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.42 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC in 61%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 15W 7D 9L in their last 31 games (1.68 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 8W 7D 16L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.27 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 47%, Baniyas SC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sharjah FC and 73% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sharjah FC's games and 67% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sharjah FC's matches and 73% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 5-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.90 xG and Baniyas SC 2.06 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baniyas SC landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Baniyas SC attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 22% | Baniyas SC 42%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 48%, Baniyas SC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.