Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Ain (83%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Ain face Dibba Al-Fujairah.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah meet at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Al Ain (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Ain's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al Ain have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Dibba Al-Fujairah managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Al Ain 3–2 Dibba Al-Fujairah — a Al Ain win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Ain and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Ain 48% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 56% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 3.27 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.429 / defence 0.674 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.841 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Al Ain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.429 — their 3.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating of 1.549 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Ain's projected output up. Al Ain have a tight defence (rating 0.674), which is pulling Dibba Al-Fujairah's projected output down. Data: built from Al Ain's last 51 games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 25.
Result probabilities: Al Ain 83% | Draw 11% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.20 | Draw 8.77 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18.98. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (83%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Ain's last 10 home games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Ain 40% (last 10 home games) | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 83% | Draw 11% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al Ain 3.27 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.429 / def 0.674 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.841 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.27
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
54%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah FAQs
What time does Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Ain 4 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 83% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 5% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.43x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 3.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.84x) against Al Ain's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Al Ain's last 51 games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
83%
1.20
11%
8.77
5%
18.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.27
Al Ain xG
Total xG
4.09
0.82
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.20
83%
Home win
8.77
11%
Draw
18.98
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
4%
26.31
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 3.27 expected goals for Al Ain and 0.82 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 20W 5D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form line: 5W 5D 15L from 25 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 12 home games (9W 3D 0L).
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 3D 8L from their last 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Ain are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 1.00 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60%.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al Ain (Home) vs Dibba Al-Fujairah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Ain
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah Form FAQs
What form are Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 20W 5D 0L in their last 25 games (2.60 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al Ain's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.50 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Ain have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Ain have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al Ain
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Ain have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 42%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Ain) and 58% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Ain's recent matches and 58% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Ain's recent games and 58% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Al Ain's recent matches and 58% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-0 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 3.27 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.43 / defence 0.67 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.84 / defence 1.55, drawn from 51/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 83% | Draw 11% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 56%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.