Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ajman face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajman host Al-Wasl FC at Ajman Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ajman — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Wasl FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajman at 1.10 PPG versus Al-Wasl FC's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ajman, 3 for Al-Wasl FC and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Ajman 0–0 Al-Wasl FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ajman in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 49% versus Al-Wasl FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 49% | Al-Wasl FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.38 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.856 / defence 0.957 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.814 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.364. Data: built from Ajman's last 47 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 47.
Result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.26 | Draw 3.71 | Al-Wasl FC 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ajman 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Ajman 1.38 / Al-Wasl FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.856 / def 0.957 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.814 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Ajman (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Wasl FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Ajman 1 - 3 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 44% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ajman and Al-Wasl FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajman's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 47 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.71
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.45
1.06
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ajman and 1.06 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 7D 24L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 22W 13D 12L from 47 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajman.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 7D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Wasl FC's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Ajman (Home) vs Al-Wasl FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 16W 7D 24L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 22W 13D 12L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Ajman's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.35 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won Ajman 1-4 Al-Wasl FC.
Ajman's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ajman
4
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 65%, Al-Wasl FC at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Ajman and 65% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Al-Wasl FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ajman's games and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ajman's matches and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Ajman and Al-Wasl FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ajman's recent matches and 78% of Al-Wasl FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Ajman 1-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.38 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 49%, Al-Wasl FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.