Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ajman Stadium plays host to Ajman versus Al-Jazira in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 16:05 UK time.
Current Form
Ajman's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Jazira (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Jazira away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2026, ended Ajman 0–3 Al-Jazira — a Al-Jazira win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 49% versus Al-Jazira 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 49% | Al-Jazira 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.25 xG and Al-Jazira 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.846 / defence 1.073 | Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.446. Data: built from Ajman's last 49 games and Al-Jazira's last 49.
Result probabilities: Ajman 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 44%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.25 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Jazira 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajman 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Jazira 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Ajman 1.25 / Al-Jazira 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.846 / def 1.073 | Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Jazira xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Al-Jazira FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Ajman 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Jazira part of?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 31% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ajman and Al-Jazira will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajman vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.99x) against Ajman's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 49 games and Al-Jazira's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
31%
3.25
25%
4.00
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.79
1.54
Al-Jazira xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
15.21
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Al-Jazira Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ajman and 1.54 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 7D 25L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Jazira's form line: 22W 11D 16L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Ajman against 1.57 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 4D 11L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 9W 8D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.73 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
Ajman (Home) vs Al-Jazira (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Ajman vs Al-Jazira Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won Al-Jazira 1-5 Ajman on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
3
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Al-Jazira H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 3, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Jazira last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Al-Jazira 3-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ajman, 71% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ajman) and 58% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Al-Jazira Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Al-Jazira matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ajman's games and 71% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Al-Jazira matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ajman's matches and 58% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Ajman and Al-Jazira matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Ajman's recent matches and 83% of Al-Jazira's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.25 xG and Al-Jazira 1.54 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 44%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 49%, Al-Jazira 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.18 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.