Ajman 2-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajman host Al Bataeh at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ajman — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have recorded 3W 0D 4L from 7 outings — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's away record: 3W 0D 1L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.29 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajman 1.70 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.29 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Ajman in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 43% versus Al Bataeh 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 29% | Al Bataeh 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.38 xG and Al Bataeh 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.904 / defence 0.907 | Al Bataeh attack 0.887 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.305. Data: 33 Ajman games / 7 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 29%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al Bataeh 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 60% | Al Bataeh 25% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ajman 1.38 / Al Bataeh 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.904 / def 0.907 | Al Bataeh attack 0.887 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Ajman (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Bataeh xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Ajman vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Ajman 2 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Ajman vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Bataeh part of?
Ajman vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 44% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ajman and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Al Bataeh in?
Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-0D-4L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.71
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
Al Bataeh xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ajman and 1.05 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.57 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajman's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — Al Bataeh travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Bataeh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 29%.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al Bataeh runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ajman
3
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Bataeh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 50%, Al Bataeh 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ajman) and 50% (Al Bataeh).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Bataeh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ajman's recent matches and 25% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ajman's recent games and 50% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Bataeh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Bataeh 2-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.38 xG and Al Bataeh 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Al Bataeh attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 29%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 29%, Al Bataeh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.57 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.