Al Bataeh 0-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Al Bataeh versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 0D 3L across 6 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sharjah FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Al Bataeh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Bataeh 33% | Sharjah FC 33%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 67% | Sharjah FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.08 xG and Sharjah FC 2.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.718 / defence 1.379 | Sharjah FC attack 1.431 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.313. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sharjah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 2.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Al Bataeh games / 32 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 14% | Draw 17% | Sharjah FC 70%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 7.14 | Draw 5.88 | Sharjah FC 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.08 / 2.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Bataeh 33% | Sharjah FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 14% | Draw 17% | Sharjah FC 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Bataeh 1.08 / Sharjah FC 2.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.718 / def 1.379 | Sharjah FC attack 1.431 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.59
Sharjah FC xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Al Bataeh 0 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 14% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 70% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.72x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.43x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.59.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
14%
7.30
17%
6.00
70%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.67
2.59
Sharjah FC xG
7.30
14%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
1.44
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
8%
13.33
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
1%
97.37
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.59 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 3W 0D 3L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 1L across 6 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Bataeh heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Have Al Bataeh or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al Bataeh) and 33% (Sharjah FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Bataeh and 67% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 50%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 33% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Bataeh's matches and 67% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al Bataeh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Bataeh 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.08 xG and Sharjah FC 2.59 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.72 / defence 1.38 against Sharjah FC attack 1.43 / defence 1.01, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 14% | Draw 17% | Sharjah FC 70%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 67%, Sharjah FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Bataeh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.