Al-Wasl FC 2-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC host Ajman at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Wasl FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Wasl FC 1.90 PPG, Ajman 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Wasl FC have won 0, Ajman 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 2–4 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ajman in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 56% versus Ajman 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 47% | Ajman 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG and Ajman 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.151 / defence 1.024 | Ajman attack 0.989 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.337. Data: 34 Al-Wasl FC games / 34 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 42% | Draw 25% | Ajman 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Ajman 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Ajman 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 42% | Draw 25% | Ajman 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.54 / Ajman 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.151 / def 1.024 | Ajman attack 0.989 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ajman xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC 2 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 42% chance of winning, Ajman a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Ajman's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.05
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Ajman xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.35 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 13W 12D 9L from 34 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 13L across 34 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.50 PPG, Ajman on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 6W 7D 3L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 7W 1D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.35 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Ajman have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Ajman away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Ajman away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ajman in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
4
Draws
2
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Ajman have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 50%, Ajman 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Wasl FC) and 56% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ajman in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 38% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 56% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ajman in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Ajman 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Ajman 2-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG and Ajman 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Ajman attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 42% | Draw 25% | Ajman 34%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 47%, Ajman 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.50 PPG, Ajman 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.