Today's Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Friday 6 March 2026

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 14 fixtures on Friday 6 March 2026. Nancy vs Montpellier sits top on 77% in the Ligue 2. The shortlist runs from 77% down to 55%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

Ligue 2 supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 14 fixtures on this list that have since finished, six landed the under 2.5 goals market — 43%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 2 · France 77%

Under 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS No 67%

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 66%

Premier Division · Ireland 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 62%

Premier Division · Ireland 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Championship · England 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 57%

Primera División · Chile 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Primera División · Chile 64%

Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 57%

Ligue 2 · France 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 56%

Premier Division · Ireland 60%

#10

Ligue 2 · France 59%

#11

Premier Division · Ireland 58%

Under 2.5 58% BTTS No 54%

#12

Ligue 2 · France 56%

#13

Challenger Pro League · Belgium 56%

#14

Premier League · Ukraine 55%

✓ Under 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS No 55%

Showing top 14 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Friday 6 March 2026?

14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Nancy vs Montpellier at 77% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.