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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 7 April 2024

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 7 April 2024. Moreirense vs Estrela led the list at 74% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 74% down to 59%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 14 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 70%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Portugal 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 69% Moreirense Clean Sheet 55%

Premier League · Russia 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 64% ✓ Zenit Clean Sheet 56%

K League 1 · South-Korea 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 58%

Bundesliga · Austria 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

K League 1 · South-Korea 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 58%

2. Bundesliga · Germany 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Serie A · Italy 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 58%

Serie A · Italy 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Premier League · Ukraine 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 57%

#10

Ligue 1 · France 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#11

Czech Liga · Czech-Republic 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#12

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 55%

#13

Eredivisie · Netherlands 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 57%

#14

Primera División · Chile 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#15

Super League · Switzerland 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 58%

#16

Thai League 1 · Thailand 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#17

Ligue 1 · France 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 60%

#18

Ekstraklasa · Poland 60%

#19

Premier League · Russia 59%

#20

Bundesliga · Austria 59%

✓ Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 53%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 7 April 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Moreirense vs Estrela at 74% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.