Zenit 1-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zenit and Baltika meet at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in Premier League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Zenit's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zenit at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Baltika (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Baltika away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Zenit's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Baltika's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Zenit edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Zenit 2–0 Baltika — a Zenit win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Zenit half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Baltika half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 57% versus Baltika 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 52% | Baltika 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.40 xG and Baltika 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.021 / defence 0.831 | Baltika attack 0.641 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.100. Baltika's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Data: built from Zenit's last 51 games and Baltika's last 21.
Result probabilities: Zenit 54% | Draw 34% | Baltika 13%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.86 | Draw 2.97 | Baltika 7.97. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zenit 50% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 54% | Draw 34% | Baltika 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Zenit 1.40 / Baltika 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.021 / def 0.831 | Baltika attack 0.641 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Zenit (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Baltika xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Zenit vs Baltika kick off?
Zenit vs Baltika kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Baltika?
Zenit 1 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Zenit vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Baltika part of?
Zenit vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 54% chance of winning, Baltika a 13% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Zenit and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Zenit vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.02) and Baltika's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baltika's attack (0.64x) against Zenit's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 51 games and Baltika's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
54%
1.86
34%
2.97
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Zenit xG
Total xG
1.98
0.59
Baltika xG
1.86
54%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
3%
32.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Zenit and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zenit and 0.59 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Zenit have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 12W 5D 4L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Baltika's form line: 4W 5D 12L from 21 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Zenit are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baltika.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 10 home games (6W 2D 2L).
On the road, Baltika have gone 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zenit are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.67 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika in 29%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Baltika
Blended
Zenit (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Zenit vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and Baltika in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 games (1.95 PPG), while Baltika have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Baltika away?
Zenit's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.00 PPG; Baltika away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Zenit or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Baltika in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Zenit have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zenit have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Baltika — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Zenit
1
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Baltika?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 4, Baltika have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zenit and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Baltika 2-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Baltika?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 50%, Baltika 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Zenit) and 30% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Baltika in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zenit's recent matches and 30% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zenit and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Zenit's recent games and 30% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Zenit's recent matches and 40% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Baltika 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Baltika 1-0 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.40 xG and Baltika 0.59 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Baltika attack 0.64 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 54% | Draw 34% | Baltika 13%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 52%, Baltika 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baltika's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.