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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 30 September 2023

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 30 September 2023. Modena vs Venezia led the list at 80% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 80% down to 62%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Serie B supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the under 2.5 goals market — 60%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie B · Italy 80%

Under 2.5 80% BTTS No 69%

Ligue 2 · France 79%

✓ Under 2.5 79% ✓ BTTS No 71%

Ligue 2 · France 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 68%

Challenger Pro League · Belgium 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 62%

Serie B · Italy 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 56%

Serie B · Italy 67%

Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 56%

Championship · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 58%

League One · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 61%

Premier League · England 66%

Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#10

League One · England 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 66% ✓ Lincoln Clean Sheet 57%

#11

Primera División · Chile 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 58%

#12

Eliteserien · Norway 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#13

Premier League · England 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 60%

#14

Serie B · Italy 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 54%

#15

Premier League · Ukraine 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#16

Serie B · Italy 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 56%

#17

League One · England 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#18

Canadian Premier League · Canada 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 60%

#19

Serie A · Brazil 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#20

League One · England 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 55%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 30 September 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Modena vs Venezia at 80% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.