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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 24 September 2023

Thu 21 Fri 22 Sat 23 Sun 24 Mon 25 Tue 26 Wed 27

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 24 September 2023. Cittadella vs Como led the list at 72% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 72% down to 60%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 14 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 70%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie B · Italy 72%

Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Serie A · Brazil 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Premier League · Ukraine 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

La Liga · Spain 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 65% Real Betis Clean Sheet 54%

Ligue 1 · France 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 59%

K League 1 · South-Korea 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%

K League 1 · South-Korea 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 61%

Serie B · Italy 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 59%

Serie A · Italy 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 57%

#10

Super League 1 · Greece 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 55%

#11

Ekstraklasa · Poland 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 56%

#12

Eliteserien · Norway 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 58%

#13

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 56%

#14

Allsvenskan · Sweden 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#15

Premier League · Russia 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#16

Allsvenskan · Sweden 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#17

Canadian Premier League · Canada 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#18

Ekstraklasa · Poland 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 53%

#19

Bundesliga · Austria 60%

#20

K League 1 · South-Korea 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 54%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 24 September 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Cittadella vs Como at 72% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.