SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face Austria Vienna.

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Analysis & Preview

Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

SCR Altach at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.30 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SCR Altach have won 0, Austria Vienna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2022, ended SCR Altach 1–2 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SCR Altach trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Austria Vienna trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 51% versus Austria Vienna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 49% | Austria Vienna 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SCR Altach surrender their half-time lead 80% of the time, while Austria Vienna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.21 xG and Austria Vienna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.855 / defence 0.900 | Austria Vienna attack 0.749 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.610. Austria Vienna's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 29 games and Austria Vienna's last 29.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 38% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 31%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.66 | Draw 3.23 | Austria Vienna 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 away games).

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